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ES #145: OPEC8+ Surprises

ES #145: OPEC8+ Surprises

The eight members of the OPEC+ ‘voluntary cut crew’ (OPEC8+) announced a 548 kb/d production hike for August this weekend, surpassing the market’s expectations for a fourth consecutive 411 kb/d M/M increase in the OPEC8+ August quota.

ES #144: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Oil Producers & Consumers

ES #144: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Oil Producers & Consumers

The ten largest and fastest-growing countries by liquids production, oil demand, and refinery capacity from 2023 to 2024.

ES #143: Strait of Hormuz & Brent-WTI Spread

ES #143: Strait of Hormuz & Brent-WTI Spread

Rolling prompt Brent-WTI spread narrowed over 60% from the Jan 2-Jun 12 average of $3.14/bbl to $1.25 on June 13

ES #142: Targeting Iranian Energy Infrastructure

ES #142: Targeting Iranian Energy Infrastructure

After several waves of escalating exchanges since Israel’s initial strikes late last week, the Israeli campaign against Iran expanded to include direct attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure on June 14-15.

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

A closer look at underlying trends in the EIA’s delayed monthly data reveals signs of diminished growth potential that precede 1) WTI’s recent retreat to $60 (Mar ‘25 WTI settled at $72.57 and Apr ‘25 WTI settled at $68.28) and 2) the latest additions to OPEC’s accelerated production schedule.

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

President Trump signs a series of presidential actions to slash regulatory barriers and boost incentives for new

ES #137: Gas-Fired Power Generation Falls 7.7% Y/Y

ES #137: Gas-Fired Power Generation Falls 7.7% Y/Y

Year-to-date power generation data for the continental United States shows solar generation has outpaced all other fuels. Planned capacity growth suggests a structural shift to solar and natural gas for pre-2030 projects

ES #136: U.S. Refiners Shift to Lighter Slates, Import Sources Consolidate

ES #136: U.S. Refiners Shift to Lighter Slates, Import Sources Consolidate

Trends in U.S. refinery slates and crude imports show steady consolidation in supplying countries and adaptation to lighter runs

ES #135: Offsetting OPEC's Supply Growth

ES #135: Offsetting OPEC's Supply Growth

Maximum pressure on Iran and Venezuela could more than offset May/June production increases from OPEC's voluntary cut crew.

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

EU injection pace lags historical rates despite European gas storage ending the winter with below-average inventories (1313 Bcf vs 1394 Bcf 10YR avg) after higher-than-normal withdrawals.

ES #133: Saudi-U.S. Price War or Preemptive Supply Elasticity?

ES #133: Saudi-U.S. Price War or Preemptive Supply Elasticity?

Analyzing Saudi Arabia's historical market balancing tendencies in low, medium, and high-price regimes points to two scenarios for global crude market participants as OPEC+ plans to bring 411 kb/d of production online in May 2024