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ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession
The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization
ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth
A closer look at underlying trends in the EIA’s delayed monthly data reveals signs of diminished growth potential that precede 1) WTI’s recent retreat to $60 (Mar ‘25 WTI settled at $72.57 and Apr ‘25 WTI settled at $68.28) and 2) the latest additions to OPEC’s accelerated production schedule.