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ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

A closer look at underlying trends in the EIA’s delayed monthly data reveals signs of diminished growth potential that precede 1) WTI’s recent retreat to $60 (Mar ‘25 WTI settled at $72.57 and Apr ‘25 WTI settled at $68.28) and 2) the latest additions to OPEC’s accelerated production schedule.

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

President Trump signs a series of presidential actions to slash regulatory barriers and boost incentives for new

ES #137: Gas-Fired Power Generation Falls 7.7% Y/Y

ES #137: Gas-Fired Power Generation Falls 7.7% Y/Y

Year-to-date power generation data for the continental United States shows solar generation has outpaced all other fuels. Planned capacity growth suggests a structural shift to solar and natural gas for pre-2030 projects

ES #136: U.S. Refiners Shift to Lighter Slates, Import Sources Consolidate

ES #136: U.S. Refiners Shift to Lighter Slates, Import Sources Consolidate

Trends in U.S. refinery slates and crude imports show steady consolidation in supplying countries and adaptation to lighter runs

ES #135: Offsetting OPEC's Supply Growth

ES #135: Offsetting OPEC's Supply Growth

Maximum pressure on Iran and Venezuela could more than offset May/June production increases from OPEC's voluntary cut crew.

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

EU injection pace lags historical rates despite European gas storage ending the winter with below-average inventories (1313 Bcf vs 1394 Bcf 10YR avg) after higher-than-normal withdrawals.

ES #133: Saudi-U.S. Price War or Preemptive Supply Elasticity?

ES #133: Saudi-U.S. Price War or Preemptive Supply Elasticity?

Analyzing Saudi Arabia's historical market balancing tendencies in low, medium, and high-price regimes points to two scenarios for global crude market participants as OPEC+ plans to bring 411 kb/d of production online in May 2024

ES #132: Restructuring S. America's Producer Hierarchy

ES #132: Restructuring S. America's Producer Hierarchy

Argentina has quietly emerged as South America's second-largest crude producer, reaching average daily output of 756 kb/d in December to generate the country's first energy trade surplus since 2003.

ES #131: China's Tariff Retaliation Taps Critical Mineral Leverage

ES #131: China's Tariff Retaliation Taps Critical Mineral Leverage

China responds to President Trump's reciprocal tariffs with a combination of retaliatory levies and export restrictions on critical minerals like rare earth magnets

ES #130: The Strategic Case for Greenland

ES #130: The Strategic Case for Greenland

Why the Trump administration's Greenland interest extends far beyond untapped critical minerals

ES #129: The DRC & Outsourced Energy Security

ES #129: The DRC & Outsourced Energy Security

M23 rebels captured new territory in mineral-rich provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the source of over 70% of global cobalt production and 10% of global copper supplies.