ES #144: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Oil Producers & Consumers

The ten largest and fastest-growing countries by liquids production, oil demand, and refinery capacity from 2023 to 2024.

June 29, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 6 minutes

Energy Shots #144

The Energy Institute’s annual report on global energy markets arrived last week, providing an opportunity to break from several weeks of fast-paced macro developments and focus on the long-term drivers of global supply and demand.

We will release a series of Sunday Energy Shots on the top takeaways from the EI’s latest review, beginning with today’s look at the ten largest and fastest-growing countries by liquids production, oil demand, and refinery capacity from 2023 to 2024.

Petroleum Liquids Production

2024’s top ten countries by total petroleum liquids production (crude, condensate, NGLs) remained unchanged from 2023 despite curtailed volumes for several members of the OPEC8+ and broader Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC+) group.

Meanwhile, the ten fastest-growing countries (measured by actual Y/Y growth) saw significant movement from last year’s rankings.

  • New entrants: Canada’s post-TMX production growth (+240 kb/d) raised it to third on 2024’s list from unranked last year. Nigeria, China, Iraq, and Angola replaced Brazil, Libya, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Mexico on this year’s list of fastest-growing producers.

  • On the list in 2023: Guyana’s +225 kb/d Y/Y production growth ranked fourth globally in 2024 from ninth in 2023 (+113 kb/d). Argentina (+142 kb/d) improved from eighth in 2023 (+117 kb/d). Venezuela (+117 kb/d) gained one position from 2023 with flat growth.

Oil Demand

The world’s ten largest oil consumers remained unchanged from 2023 and collectively accounted for over 61% of global oil demand, in line with last year’s levels.

The ten fastest-growing countries by average daily oil demand in 2024 contained several notable updates.

  • As outlined here, China’s 2024 oil demand declined for the first time since 1990, dropping it from this year’s list after ranking first in 2023 (+1.61 MMb/d).

  • Similarly, U.S. oil demand fell less than 19 kb/d, dropping it from this year’s list after ranking fourth in 2023 (+151.6 kb/d).

  • India moved one position higher to take this year’s top slot with +168.4 kb/d growth from 2023.

  • New entrants: South Korea (+95 kb/d), Spain (+71.1 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (+58.7 kb/d), Vietnam (+48.4 kb/d), UAE (+45.6 kb/d), Egypt (+41.2 kb/d), Hong Kong (+41.2 kb/d);

  • On the list in 2023: Singapore (+84.3 kb/d) unchanged at third (2023: +179.8 kb/d), Russia (+81.3 kb/d) up one position from 2023 (+151.5 kb/d).

Refinery Capacity

China surpassed the U.S. to secure the world’s largest refinery capacity with 18.51 MMb/d in 2024 versus 18.428 MMb/d in 2023. The U.S. shed approximately 13 kb/d from 2023’s 18.429 MMb/d to fall to second on 2024’s list with 18.416 MMb/d. The remaining positions were unchanged year-on-year.

Asia and the Middle East led global refinery capacity growth again in 2024, continuing the trend from the last decade despite accounting for a lower overall share of growth among the top ten (56% in 2024 v. 83% in 2023).

  • Nigeria’s commercialization of the 650 kb/d Dangote refinery (+501 kb/d Y/Y), raised it to first in this year’s rankings from 8th in 2023 (+54 kb/d).

  • New entrants: Malaysia (+200 kb/d), Egypt (+30 kb/d), Argentina (+20 kb/d), Pakistan (+20 kb/d)

  • On the list in 2023: Oman (+168 kb/d) up one position from 2023 (+92 kb/d), Kuwait (+121 kb/d) down two slots from 2023 (+474 kb/d), India (+87 kb/d) up four from 2023 (+40 kb/d), China (+86 kb/d) down from first in 2023 (+1.17 MMb/d), Indonesia (+17 kb/d) down three positions from 2023 (+62 kb/d)

Identify Your Opportunity Set

Market conditions evolve rapidly. Reach out to the Mobius team to discuss portfolio-specific opportunities and develop tailored strategies for downstream scenarios—all backed by the industry’s most powerful analytics suite.

Please reach out to your Mobius contact or submit a request here.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.