The Jan 1 expiration of the US debt ceiling suspension enacted under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 leaves the Treasury Department with just one to two weeks until the US reaches its new debt limit.
Market bets for >50 bps of rate cuts by the Fed's Sep. '25 meeting drop to 7.5% from over 70% two months ago.
Treasuries plummet, dollar jumps, and leveraged funds create a feedback loop of margin risk.
The People's Bank of China releases stimulus measures with questionable impact on infrastructure spending and near-term industrial commodity demand
How today's inflation data compares to its historical distribution and a closer look at today's rate cut bets.
Survey responses, labor trends, and the effects of this week's market-moving economic indicators
Germany's sagging economic outlook must contend with the ECB's hawkish outlook
2s10s historical accuracy, record shorts, carry unwind
How hedge funds reacted to yen-funded carry unwind and the inflation problem ahead
A closer look at the latest speculator positioning
Rapid yen appreciation takes a breather, settling at 144/dollar as markets take stock of the Fed's rate cut outlook.
...but underlying supply chain price pressures persist
