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Brief: $850B Net Short US Treasuries
Apr 15, 2025

Brief: $850B Net Short US Treasuries

Leveraged funds' net short futures and options position in UST 10Y falls by a record $32 billion week-on-week, raising the combined net short position in UST 2Y, 5Y, 10Y to -$849.9 billion.

Brief: GDP and FX to Amplify Tariff Squeeze
Mar 04, 2025

Brief: GDP and FX to Amplify Tariff Squeeze

How much the Canadian and Mexican economies rely on trade with the United States

Brief: The US Debt Ceiling, Strong Dollar, & Surging Sovereign Bond Yields
Jan 08, 2025

Brief: The US Debt Ceiling, Strong Dollar, & Surging Sovereign Bond Yields

The Jan 1 expiration of the US debt ceiling suspension enacted under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 leaves the Treasury Department with just one to two weeks until the US reaches its new debt limit.

Brief: Dollar Jumps, Rate Cut Bets Falter
Dec 19, 2024

Brief: Dollar Jumps, Rate Cut Bets Falter

Market bets for >50 bps of rate cuts by the Fed's Sep. '25 meeting drop to 7.5% from over 70% two months ago.

Short $1.14 Trillion with Interest Rate Risk
Oct 23, 2024

Short $1.14 Trillion with Interest Rate Risk

Treasuries plummet, dollar jumps, and leveraged funds create a feedback loop of margin risk.

China's Sentiment Stimulus
Sep 24, 2024

China's Sentiment Stimulus

The People's Bank of China releases stimulus measures with questionable impact on infrastructure spending and near-term industrial commodity demand

25 or 50?
Sep 11, 2024

25 or 50?

How today's inflation data compares to its historical distribution and a closer look at today's rate cut bets.

Monitoring US Industry, Labor, Yields
Sep 04, 2024

Monitoring US Industry, Labor, Yields

Survey responses, labor trends, and the effects of this week's market-moving economic indicators

Germany's Economic Ripple Effect
Aug 29, 2024

Germany's Economic Ripple Effect

Germany's sagging economic outlook must contend with the ECB's hawkish outlook

Tracking to Recession
Aug 20, 2024

Tracking to Recession

2s10s historical accuracy, record shorts, carry unwind

Over $4 Billion Removed
Aug 14, 2024

Over $4 Billion Removed

How hedge funds reacted to yen-funded carry unwind and the inflation problem ahead

CoT: Longs Sink to Record Low
Aug 12, 2024

CoT: Longs Sink to Record Low

A closer look at the latest speculator positioning

Award-winning macro and commodity market research for deeper insights in less time.

Mobius Market Research

Award-winning macro and commodity market research for deeper insights in less time.

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