ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

Energy Shots #139

President Trump released a series of presidential actions on Friday to slash regulatory barriers and boost incentives for new U.S. nuclear power generation, including executive orders for:

• Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base

• Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at The Department of Energy

• Ordering The Reform of The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and

• Restoring Gold Standard Science

While details are still emerging, Energy Shots #139 outlines several of the most important directives from Friday’s actions and evaluates these against the current state of the U.S. nuclear industry, including:

• Domestic uranium production vs. annual consumption

• Domestic uranium enrichment and reliance on foreign enrichment services

• How the U.S. ranks relative to other countries for median reactor construction speed for a) all units since 1951 and b) reactors constructed after 1990

• How the U.S. ranks for power generating capacity added per year of construction for units after 1990.

Executive Orders - The Highlights

Ordering The Reform of the NRC directs the NRC to revise regulations and guidance to:

1. Establish fixed deadlines for license evaluation and approval, including an 18-month deadline for construction and operation of new reactors and a 12-month deadline for continued operation of an existing reactor.

2. Establish an expedited pathway for approving reactor designs that have been safely tested by the Departments of Defense or Energy

3. Establish a process for high-volume licensing of microreactors and modular reactors

4. Facilitate the increased deployment of new nuclear reactor technologies and expand American nuclear energy capacity from ~100 GW today to 400 GW by 2050

Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at The Department of Energy tasks the Secretary of Energy with:

1. Revising regulations, guidance, and procedures to significantly expedite the review, approval, and deployment of advanced reactors under DOE jurisdiction to enable operational test reactors within two years of a completed application

2. Creating a pilot program for the construction and operation of at least three reactors outside of the National Laboratories with the goal of achieving criticality by July 4, 2026

Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base aims to expedite and promote the production and operation of nuclear energy to power next-generation technologies to secure industrial, digital, and economic dominance; acheive energy independence; and protect national security by:

1. Directing energy, defense, and transportation secretaries to develop a recommended national policy for spent nuclear fuel management

2. Directing the Secretary of Energy to develop a plan to expand domestic uranium conversion capacity and enrichment capabilities to meet projected civilian and defense reactor needs

3. Leveraging the Defense Production Act to seek voluntary agreements with domestic nuclear energy companies for the procurement of enriched uranium and consultation on methods to enhance domestic capability to manage spent nuclear fuel

4. Authorizing the Secretary of Energy to support the establishment of nuclear industry consortia by ensuring offtake for newly established domestic fuel supply across milling, conversion/deconversion, enrichment, fabrication, recycling, and reprocessing

5. Leveraging Federal financial resources to support the restart, completion, uprate, and construction of nuclear plants.

6. Directing the Department of Energy to prioritize the facilitation of 5 GW of power uprates to existing nuclear reactors and construction on 10 new large reactors by 2030.

7. Directing the Secretary of Labor and Secretary of Education to increase participation in nuclear energy-related apprenticeships, careers, and education programs

Current State of U.S. Nuclear Power

Friday’s executive orders comprehensively target barriers to new domestic nuclear power generation after decades of negative capacity growth.

• Aging fleet: Nearly all operating capacity came online before 1990.

• Net loss since 2000: U.S. nuclear capacity has fallen by 5.44 GW.

• Thin pipeline: As of April 2025, only one 500 MW reactor is in planning (start-up forecast 2030) and 241.7 MW of uprates are scheduled before 2050.

If the new directives succeed—5 GW of uprates, 10 large reactors by 2030, and restarted or completed projects—the U.S. could add 15 GW or more within five years.

Domestic Uranium Production

The Department of Energy’s latest data shows domestic uranium production jumped 1,264% Y/Y to 677,000 pounds of uranium concentrate in 2024.

However, last year’s output followed the second-lowest year of domestic uranium production since the beginning of the U.S.’ 20th-century nuclear buildout.

In the context of total uranium used by U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors, last year’s domestically-sourced supplies represent less than 2% of annual fuel consumption— up from 0.11% in 2023.

Domestic Enrichment

Further dissecting the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain shows limited domestic uranium enrichment on top of limited domestic uranium production.

• At the start of 2024, domestic enrichment services represented just 28% of the total required by the U.S.’ 102 GW nuclear fleet.

• Meanwhile, foreign enrichment services provided nearly 11 million separative work units (SWUs) out of the total 15.2 million SWUs purchased by U.S. nuclear reactor owners and operators. Over half of these foreign-origin enrichment services came from Russia and China.

Construction Efficiency

Analyzing historical nuclear reactor construction speeds by country shows the U.S. underperforms nearly all developed nations.

• The U.S. ranks 21st out of the top 25 countries by median reactor construction speed and 25th by average construction speed for all units constructed since 1951.

For reactors constructed after 1990, the US ranks 10th out of 11 qualifying countries with a median timeline of 10 years from construction start to first grid connection.

Over the same post-1990 period, the U.S. ranks 7th out of 11 qualifying countries for capacity added per year of construction.

• The U.S. constructs approximately 125 MW of generation capacity per build-year vs. #1-ranked Japan’s 337 MW of capacity per build-year.

Takeaways

• Achieving the White House’s 2030 milestones will require reversing decades of under-investment and regulatory delay.

• The executive orders directly target many of the bottlenecks; if implemented without legal holdups, they could significantly shorten project timelines.

• Nuclear’s reliability aligns well with emerging 24/7-load technologies—e.g., AI data-centers and heavy industry.

• Nevertheless, substantial new capacity before 2030 remains unlikely; natural gas will probably meet most near-term growth in firm power demand.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.