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Brief: La Nina Winter 2025-2026
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Brief: La Nina Winter 2025-2026

The NOAA’s Oct 9 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion determined that La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).

Brief: 4.6x More Solar
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Brief: 4.6x More Solar

The U.S. installed nearly 4.6 times more solar capacity than gas-fired generation through the first eight months of 2025. The EIA’s latest Form 860 data suggests this trend will continue, with solar additions expected to exceed gas by 4.2 times by the start of 2026.

Daily Market Update - September 29, 2025
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Daily Market Update - September 29, 2025

Today in oil and natural gas markets:

Brief: EU Gas Storage Update
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Brief: EU Gas Storage Update

This week, Poland and Portugal became the European Union’s first member states to fill their underground gas storage caverns to 100% of capacity ahead of winter 2025-2026.

Brief: Peak Summer Power Burns
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Brief: Peak Summer Power Burns

Texas’ daily gas fired generation recorded its highest level of 2025 this week at more than 971 GWh (5YR S.A. 98th percentile) as Texas power demand gained to its second-highest of the summer (1,671 GWh - 5YR S.A. 94th percentile).

Brief: Texas Solar +47% Y/Y in July
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Brief: Texas Solar +47% Y/Y in July

Solar generation growth remained a powerful source of demand destruction for the South Central gas market this month, as ERCOT’s average mid-day solar generation jumped more than 47% above average rates from July 2024.

Brief: U.S. LNG Replaces Russian Gas in Central Europe
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Brief: U.S. LNG Replaces Russian Gas in Central Europe

After facing an unprecedented energy crisis in 2022, Germany poured more than 6.5 billion euro (so far) into LNG infrastructure investments to mitigate supply risks and shore up domestic energy security.

ES #147: China v. U.S. is about energy

ES #147: China v. U.S. is about energy

China generated over 10,000 TWh of electricity in 2024, more than doubling total U.S. power output as the global AI resource race heats up

Brief: Record Solar & South Central Gas Demand
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Brief: Record Solar & South Central Gas Demand

ERCOT’s leading share of 2025 U.S. solar capacity growth has emerged as a primary source of natural gas demand destruction for the South Central this summer.

Brief: EU Parliament Endorses Flexible Gas Storage Mandates
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Brief: EU Parliament Endorses Flexible Gas Storage Mandates

The EU’s push for more flexible storage regulations highlights the bloc’s escalating supply concerns as European Commission officials attempt to force member states to adopt legislation to cut all imports of Russian natural gas (pipeline + LNG) to zero by the end of 2027

Brief: Texas Gas Demand Destruction
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Brief: Texas Gas Demand Destruction

ERCOT’s June 2025 grid data offers a clear look at the drivers of sequentially weak demand that have amplified downside risks from high end-of-season (EOS) storage levels for domestic producers.

Brief: Hedge Funds' TTF Bets Face New EU Storage Regulations
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Brief: Hedge Funds' TTF Bets Face New EU Storage Regulations

The European gas market is unlikely to get a reprieve from near-term volatility as a complex combination of new EU gas regulations, low seasonal storage levels, and a sharp increase in hedge funds’ speculative bets on TTF offset this week’s rapid reduction in conflict-related disruption risks to Qatari LNG exports.