ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

Energy Shots #134

The pace of the European Union’s gas storage injections has lagged historical rates this year despite the bloc’s larger-than-normal winter ‘24-’25 withdrawals, reaffirming Dutch TTF’s winter ‘25-’26 upside price risks as member countries face a narrow window to satisfy the European Commission’s mandate for 90% full storage by November 1st.

EU Winter ‘24-’25 Gas Storage Recap

Average winter '24-'25 withdrawals from aggregate EU gas storage (-14.1 Bcf/d) were 1.9 Bcf/d (15.6%) higher than the historical average (-12.2 Bcf/d).

• Key drivers were Nov (-13.7 vs -8.9 avg), Feb (-21.1 vs -16.6 avg), and Jan (-23.5 vs -21.0 avg). March saw slightly lower withdrawals (-7.7 vs -8.9 avg).

The EU’s aggregate gas storage fell to a season-ending 1,313 Bcf (Historical Range: 663-2273 Bcf). Storage levels after winter ‘24-’25 were 81 Bcf (-5.8%) below the historical average, and the EU reached its season-ending minimum 7 days earlier than typical (March 27th).

Regional Highlights

• Germany: Winter withdrawals (-3.6 Bcf/d) were 0.9 Bcf/d (33.7%) above the historical average (-2.7 Bcf/d), primarily due to very high withdrawals in Feb (-6.5 vs -3.6 avg) and Jan (-6.6 vs -4.8 avg). Minimum inventory levels hit 245 Bcf (Hist. Range: 121-595 Bcf), significantly below average by 102 Bcf (-29.4%), reached 10 days later than typical (April 10th).

• France: Overall winter withdrawals (-2.1 Bcf/d) were roughly in line with the historical average (-2.1 Bcf/d). November saw higher rates (-2.7 vs -1.5 avg), offset by lower rates in March (-0.9 vs -1.8 avg). Minimum inventory hit 97 Bcf (Hist. Range: 13-169 Bcf), slightly above average by 3 Bcf (+3.6%), reached 10 days earlier than typical (March 19th).

• Italy: Winter withdrawals (-2.4 Bcf/d) were 0.2 Bcf/d (10.1%) above the historical average (-2.1 Bcf/d). October saw unusually high withdrawals (-1.3 vs -0.3 avg). Minimum storage levels after winter ‘24-’25 hit 293 Bcf (Hist. Range: 200-380 Bcf), well above average by 28 Bcf (+10.5%), reached 4 days later than the 10YR average (March 31st).

• Netherlands: Winter withdrawals (-2.0 Bcf/d) were 0.2 Bcf/d (8.9%) above the historical average (-1.8 Bcf/d), driven mainly by November (-2.6 vs -1.4 avg). Post-winter storage levels hit a minimum of 103 Bcf (Hist. Range: 28-278 Bcf), below average by 50 Bcf (-32.5%), nearly at the same time as the trailing 10YR average (March 28th, -1 day vs avg).

• Spain: Winter withdrawals (-0.3 Bcf/d) were slightly below the historical average (-0.3 Bcf/d). October saw effectively zero withdrawal vs an average of -1.0 Bcf/d. December saw higher withdrawals (-0.4 vs -0.2 avg). Minimum inventory hit 75 Bcf (Hist. Range: 56-94 Bcf), slightly above average by 4 Bcf (+6.3%), roughly on track with the trailing 10YR average (March 22nd, -1 day vs avg).

The EU’s April Injection Pace

Since hitting the March 27th low (28 days), EU storage operators have injected 148 Bcf at an average rate of 5.9 Bcf/d, lagging the historical average rate of 8.0 Bcf/d (-26.8%). Since Apr 1 (24 days), injections averaged 6.4 Bcf/d, also below the 8.3 Bcf/d average (-23.0%).

Regional Highlights

• Germany: Since the April 10th low (14 days), 20 Bcf has been injected into German storage facilities at an average rate of 1.4 Bcf/d, below the historical average of 1.9 Bcf/d (-24.0%). Since Apr 1 (24 days), the rate (1.2 Bcf/d) trails the average (1.9 Bcf/d) by -39.8%.

• France: Since the March 19th low (36 days), 71 Bcf has been injected into French storage facilities at an average rate of 2.0 Bcf/d, exceeding the historical average of 1.8 Bcf/d (+10.0%). Since Apr 1 (24 days), the rate (2.2 Bcf/d) is notably strong, exceeding the average (1.9 Bcf/d) by +18.4%.

• Italy: Since the March 31st low (24 days), 25 Bcf has been injected into Italy’s underground natural gas storage. The average rate of 1.0 Bcf/d is significantly below the historical average of 1.8 Bcf/d (-41.6%). Italy’s injection rate since Apr 1 is identical and also trails the average (1.7 Bcf/d) significantly (-41.4%).

• Netherlands: Since the March 28th low (27 days), 16 Bcf has been injected into Dutch storage. The average rate of 0.65 Bcf/d is below the historical average of 1.1 Bcf/d (-40.6%). The Netherlands’ injection pace since Apr 1 (0.7 Bcf/d) is also 0.5 Bcf/d (-41.5%) below the historical average (1.2 Bcf/d).

• Spain: Since the March 22nd low (33 days), 9 Bcf has been injected into Spain’s underground storage facilities. Spain’s average rate of 0.29 Bcf/d is significantly above the historical average of 0.15 Bcf/d (+88.4%). Spanish storage operators’ injection pace since Apr 1 (0.29 Bcf/d) is also well above the historical average (0.17 Bcf/d) by +73.9%.

Dutch TTF Summer-Winter Spread

2025’s slower injection pace coincides with the second summer-winter premium for Dutch TTF (as of Apr 1) since 2015.

While the summer ‘25 premium over winter ‘25-’26 has narrowed from the levels seen during February’s fear-driven rally, European storage operators’ cautious start to summer ‘25 injection season warrants monitoring as EU storage mandates approach.

• Note: Several EU member states are pushing the European Commission for relaxed storage mandates in 2025, 2026, and 2027—both for the Nov 1 90% target and the intermediate targets that limit operators’ purchasing flexibility.

Looking Ahead

The EU’s supply-side landscape in 2025 drastically differs from previous years. While the bloc has maintained purchases of Russian LNG, member countries are cut off from nearly all Russian pipeline gas after the Jan 1 expiry of the Gazprom-Ukraine transit agreement.

Norway and the United States have filled most of the void left by lost Russian pipeline gas, leaving Europe exposed to heightened levels of supply-side risks, including a) unplanned outages (Norway) and b) elevated competition for U.S. LNG in Asia as Asian export-centric economies race to reduce trade imbalances against the United States.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

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