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ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

ES #139: Expediting The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

President Trump signs a series of presidential actions to slash regulatory barriers and boost incentives for new

Brief: Soft Inflation Undermines Tariff-Related Recession Forecasts

Brief: Soft Inflation Undermines Tariff-Related Recession Forecasts

April CPI data comes in at four-year lows, undermining forecasts that tariff-related costs will pass through to consumers and drive price growth

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

ES #134: The EU's Slow Start to Summer Injection Season

EU injection pace lags historical rates despite European gas storage ending the winter with below-average inventories (1313 Bcf vs 1394 Bcf 10YR avg) after higher-than-normal withdrawals.

Brief: March Iranian, Venezuelan Output Shows Limited Impact of Maximum Pressure Campaign 2.0

Brief: March Iranian, Venezuelan Output Shows Limited Impact of Maximum Pressure Campaign 2.0

OPEC's March production data from the April 2025 MOMR shows limited immediate effects of the Trump administration's reinstated maximum pressure campaign on Iran

Brief: U.S. Imports Hold At Record High in February

Brief: U.S. Imports Hold At Record High in February

U.S. trade deficit narrows to the second-largest on record as imports hold flat at $401.1 billion and exports increase 2.9% M/M to $278.5 billion

Brief: Reciprocal Tariff Key Takeaways

Brief: Reciprocal Tariff Key Takeaways

Immediate takeaways from President Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff announcements

Brief: Guyanese Crude Diffs & Easing Canadian Oil Tariff Concerns

Brief: Guyanese Crude Diffs & Easing Canadian Oil Tariff Concerns

Guyana's medium Payara Gold erases its brief premium over Brent as West Coast refiners' concerns about U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude imports fade

ES #128: Tripling Global Nuclear Generation by 2050

ES #128: Tripling Global Nuclear Generation by 2050

Tech giants sign up to support the World Nuclear Association's goal of tripling global nuclear power generation capacity by 2050

Brief: Hedge Funds Slash Length in TTF As Regulators Relax Storage Mandates

Brief: Hedge Funds Slash Length in TTF As Regulators Relax Storage Mandates

Money managers removed over 150 million contracts of long interest in Dutch TTF over the past three weeks as warm weather and new regulations ease imminent storage risks

Brief: Policies Hit Heavy Crude Supplies, Refiners' Margins

Brief: Policies Hit Heavy Crude Supplies, Refiners' Margins

President Trump reaffirms plans to hit Canada with tariffs on March 4 and revokes Chevron's special license to operate in Venezuela.

Brief: TTF Erases 27% As Hedge Funds Scrap Bullish Bets

Brief: TTF Erases 27% As Hedge Funds Scrap Bullish Bets

Plus: Anti-fossil traffic light coalition posts massive losses in German chancellorship election, opening the door for new natural gas and nuclear generation capacity in Europe's largest economy