Brief: EU Storage Drives TTF Winter Premium 82% Higher M/M

Average daily injections into EU natural gas storage facilities improve from 2023 and 2024 but remain below the trailing 10YR median rates. Total EU storage levels are narrowly above the 10YR seasonal median.

May 20, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Dutch TTF’s winter ‘25-’26 premium over bal summer ‘25 increased 82% M/M to $0.60/MMBtu this afternoon, driven by concerningly low EU gas storage levels and a strengthening regulatory push to cut all imports of Russian gas.

Key Intel:

  • Aggregate EU gas storage levels remain below 45% of capacity and are the third-lowest seasonal level since 2019. Average daily injections have held below the trailing 10YR median for April and March, holding the Y/Y deficit in EU storage near -855 Bcf since the start of the month.

  • A steep decline in EU-27 wind generation has added to concerns over slower-than-normal injections, with total onshore/offshore wind output down from a peak of 68 GW last week to a peak of 13 GW today.

  • Market positioning has responded to the EU’s short window to refill storage facilities with a slow rebound in speculative long interest in TTF over the past two weeks. Investment funds’ length fell approximately 70% from February 7 to the end of April as the European Commission mulled more flexible storage mandates for EU members. While the commission relaxed some conditions, operators still face a steep climb to fill storage to 80% or higher by the start of winter ‘25-’26.

Sources within the European Commission told BBG today that the EU aims to cut imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 by implementing an import quota of zero—a method officials believe will give companies a legal means to cancel long-term purchase agreements.

The EU’s narrowing list of gas suppliers, low storage levels after a warmer-than-normal winter ‘24-’25, and increasing reliance on variable renewable generation adds 1) material upside volatility risks to TTF for bal summer ‘25 and summer ‘26 and 2) tailwinds for the EU’s demand for U.S. LNG.

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