Brief: The Cusp of Summer Power Demand

Daily power demand for the continental United States averaged over 5% above the previous 60-day rate this week, and demand for thermal power resources jumped to 3-month highs as wind faltered

May 29, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

This week’s power generation and consumption data for the lower 48 United States shows signs that the end of this year’s high-renewable/low demand shoulder season is swiftly approaching.

Key Intel

CONUS electricity demand jumped over 5% above the trailing 60-day average this week as hot weather, cloudy skies, and weak winds enveloped significant portions of the lower 48 states.

  • Daily CONUS electricity consumption averaged nearly 11 billion kWh over the week ending Mar 28 versus an average of less than 10.5 billion kWh for the previous 60 days.

Cloud coverage and low wind speeds cut lower 48 solar and wind generation to 3-month lows in recent days, forcing dispatchable thermal generators to meet this week’s rising demand.

  • Wind generation fell to its lowest since March 1 yesterday, dropping below 17 GW at 9am versus a trailing 3M peak of over 96 GW.

  • Solar rebounded to the middle of its 3M range yesterday after dropping to its lowest since Mar 1 on Tuesday.

Electricity output from natural gas, coal, and nuclear units jumped to the top of their respective 3M ranges as variable renewable generation plummeted.

  • Total lower 48 gas-fired generation had two of its five strongest days in the last three months this week, gaining from the bottom of its three-month range on Monday.

  • Coal-fired output had a similarly sharp move higher since Monday, gaining from its fourth-lowest level since Mar 1 on 05/26 to its tenth-highest level yesterday evening.

Looking Ahead

Emerging weakness in lower 48 wind generation indicates an imminent transition from the annual high wind/low demand shoulder season to the low wind/high demand summer season, offering a moderately bullish signal to domestic participants that face lackluster short-term fundamentals.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.