- Mobius Market Research
- Posts
- Germany's Economic Ripple Effect
Germany's Economic Ripple Effect
Germany's sagging economic outlook must contend with the ECB's hawkish outlook
Mobius Intel Brief:
Germany’s August inflation data showed that price pressures in Europe’s largest economy eased -0.1% from July, growing by 1.9% Y/Y.
While Germany’s print supports the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate cut outlook, separate anecdotal data suggests Germany’s hopes for positive economic growth in 2H24 are fading faster than ECB officials can safely ease without fanning currency volatility and liquidity risks.
Like many major central banks, the ECB must caution against widening yield spreads with U.S. sovereign debt.
Meanwhile, Germany’s economic tumult spreads beyond its borders as top trading partners like Switzerland warn markets of the compounded effects of dampened demand on decade-high Franc-Euro exchange rates.
As discussed below, energy policy plays a material role in Germany’s uncertain 2H24, with consequences evident in business sentiment, investor expectations, and rapidly rising bankruptcies.
Intel Brief Outline
Subscribe to Mobius Market Pro to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Mobius Market Pro to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.
A subscription gets you:
- • Exclusive natural gas and crude complex market analysis from Mobius' VP of Markets and Research, Zane Curry (4x/week)
- • Unlimited access to Mobius' Energy Shots trend-spotting research
- • Unrestricted access to Mobius' data-centric Intel Briefs and analyst takeaways to turn headlines into actionable insights
- • Open lines of communication with Mobius Market Research to pose questions, request topic coverage, and get a sanity check on shifting market dynamics