ES #148: $750 billion in US energy

The U.S. and EU struck a trade deal on Sunday afternoon that, according to a joint press conference between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes a 15% tariff on nearly all EU goods (excl. metals and pharmaceuticals), a $600 billion increase in EU investments into the US, and an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy exports.

July 27, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 5 minutes

Energy Shots #148

The U.S. and EU struck a trade deal on Sunday afternoon that, according to a joint press conference between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes a 15% tariff on nearly all EU goods (excl. metals and pharmaceuticals), a $600 billion increase in EU investments into the US, and an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy exports.

While specific details about the EU’s commitment to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy supplies were sparse in today’s White House event, a subsequent presser with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clarified that 1) the total sum will be split into $250 billion increments over the three remaining years of President Trump’s term and 2) U.S. energy will be the primary replacement for the EU’s existing purchases of Russian natural gas and oil.

“[The sum] is divided into three years. So, during [President Trump’s] term, $250 billion per year. We still have too much Russian LNG that is coming through the back door again to the European Union, and some Russian gas and oil still in the European Union, which we do not want anymore. We want to absolutely get rid of Russian fossil fuels and therefore, it is much welcome to purchase the more affordable and better LNG from the United States. Our estimation is that we can do $250 billion per year over three years.”

Ursula von der Leyen

$250 Billion Per Year in Context

The EU’s annual commitment to purchase $250 billion of U.S. energy exports per annum is more than the total value of all U.S. petroleum exports and nearly 80% of the total value of all U.S. energy exports to all countries in 2024.

Value of U.S. Oil & Gas Exports to the EU

The dollar value of the EU’s imports of U.S. LNG through the first four months of this year increased over 90% from the same period in 2024 to approximately $7.8 billion, putting the bloc on course for ~$25 billion for CY2025 before today’s announcement.

Meanwhile, the U.S.’ total crude and refined product exports to the European Union totaled approximately $51 billion last year, and YTD exports have followed a similar trajectory.

In other words, the EU’s commitment represents a ~230% increase from its current purchases of U.S. petroleum and LNG exports.

Even if the U.S. captures the bulk of Russia’s share of EU natural gas and petroleum imports, the bloc will still require $75-$100 billion of additional spending on non-oil/non-gas US energy supplies, suggesting the EU’s commitment will expand into purchases of U.S. enriched uranium and broader power generation infrastructure.

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See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.