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Brief: Seasonal Deficits in Floating Stocks
Global floating crude storage added 6.9 MMb W/W to 81.8 MMb this week, led by builds in Asia. Still, a closer look at current numbers relative to historical trends shows the global crude market skews undersupplied despite consecutive OPEC8+ production hikes.
ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession
The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization
