Brief: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record on Import Surge

U.S. imports of goods and services jumped by $36 billion month-on-month in January for the largest monthly increase in history to the largest trade deficit in history

March 06, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Today’s U.S. trade data showed January’s monthly imports surged $36 billion from December—the largest monthly increase in history— to a record $401 billion. January’s historic jump in imported goods and services raised the U.S. monthly trade deficit to another record of -$131.4 billion.

Key Intel:

  • January’s record $36 billion month-on-month increase in imported goods and services reflects importers’ urgency to avoid the Trump administration’s promised tariffs.

  • Consecutive record monthly deficits raises the odds for more tariff-driven volatility in global markets as the Trump administration targets the primary sources of the U.S. trade imbalance.

  • FX rates and yields on sovereign debt warrant monitoring as trade spats collide with softening activity in export-centric economies across the Americas, EU, and Asia. While the strength of the dollar’s influence on commodity demand varies, tariff-related USD appreciation could amplify emerging economic concerns and contribute incremental headwinds to the market’s near-term demand expectations—particularly as OPEC+ begins unwinding production cuts next month.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.