Brief: Guyanese Crude Wins Tailwinds From Canada's Tariff Uncertainty

A closer look at Guyana's full year of 2024 production data and the repercussions of Canada's new export capacity to the US West Coast

February 11, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Guyanese crude production jumped 57% (+225kb/d) Y/Y to an average of 616 kb/d in 2024, as the Exxon-led consortium’s newest Prosperity FPSO ramped output from 0 kb/d in Oct 2023 to an average of 250 kb/d in 2H24.

Key Intel

  • The Exxon-led consortium increased production to an average of 653 kb/d for the final four months of 2024 after cutting output in June and August to connect a 50 MMscf/d gas pipeline for Guyana’s gas-to-energy project.

  • New projects will increase Guyanese crude output by 250 kb/d for each of the next three years, raising total production to approximately 1.3 MMb/d by year-end 2027.

  • Despite rapid production growth and favorable grades for US refiners, Guyana’s share of US crude imports faced significant pressure after the start-up of Canada’s TMX expansion, which increased Canada’s pipeline export capacity to the Pacific coast by 590 kb/d to 890 kb/d beginning May 2024.

  • After hitting a peak of 278 kb/d in June 2024, PADD 5 crude imports from Guyana fell for five-consecutive months through November to a thirteen-month low of 103 kb/d. Over the same period, PADD 5 imports from Canada increased by approximately 47% to a Jul-Nov average of 444 kb/d.

Looking Ahead: Tariffs Add Tailwinds for Guyanese Barrels

  • US-Canada tariff uncertainty will add incremental tailwinds for Guyanese barrels. Prices for Guyana’s medium-heavy Payara Gold have recovered from a -$3.20 discount to Dated Brent in early Jan to a premium of >$1.5 since President Trump’s late-January tariff announcements.

  • Prolonged OPEC production cuts and tighter sanctions enforcement on Iranian exports will further support demand for Guyana’s favorable medium-heavy/low-sulfur crude.

  • Guyana’s fourth production vessel, One Guyana, will begin production later in 2025 and will increase capacity by 250 kb/d. The 250 kb/d Uaru project is targeted for 2026. The 250 kb/d Whiptail project is expected to come online by the end of 2027. Guyana’s seventh project, Hammerhead, is planned for 2029, adding another 180 kb/d.

  • Exxon expects capacity will surpass 1.7 MMb/d by 2030 with plans to maintain a cadence of brining new projects online approximately every 18 months.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.