Brief: OPEC Production Creeps Higher Ahead of Schedule

Core OPEC producers increased output by approximately 154 kb/d in February to 26.86 million barrels per day, core OPEC's highest monthly production since November 2023.

March 12, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Core OPEC members increased production by 154 kb/d to 26.86 MMb/d in February from an upwardly revised 26.71 MMb/d in January, OPEC’s March 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed today.

Key Intel:

  • Core OPEC’s February production was the highest monthly output since voluntary cuts began in November 2023, according to the average reported production numbers in OPEC’s Feb 24, Jan 24, and Dec 23 MOMRs. (Chart Below)

  • Core OPEC: Nine countries contributed to core OPEC’s 154 kb/d M/M increase. The top five sources of monthly growth were: Iran (+34 kb/d), Nigeria (+34 kb/d), UAE (+25 kb/d), Iraq (+19 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (+18 kb/d).

  • OPEC+: Total OPEC+ (Declaration of Cooperation) participants produced an average of 41.01 MMb/d in February, up 363 kb/d month-on-month. A 198 kb/d M/M increase in Kazakh production led the +208 kb/d M/M increase in total non-OPEC DoC production. (Chart Below)

  • Ahead of Schedule: February’s output shows creeping compliance issues among DoC producers. Last month’s +363 kb/d increase was ~2.6x larger than the scheduled 138 kb/d growth in OPEC+ output in April, when the group plans to begin unwinding 2.2 MMb/d of voluntary cuts.

Looking Ahead

  • Early creep in OPEC+ production will likely continue as DoC producers plan to start unwinding cuts in April. Diminished compliance among a subset of OPEC+ members will likely weigh on core OPEC leaders’ willingness to prolong extensive cuts. OPEC+ production growth and increased North/South American output will help offset supply impacts from the U.S.’ campaigns against Iran and Venezuela.

Dive Deeper:

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