Brief: Venezuelan Crude Output Breaks 1 MMb/d, Hits 5.5-Year High

Venezuelan oil production averaged 1.03 MMb/d in January, breaking the 1-million-barrel mark for the first time since June 2019

February 19, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Venezuelan oil production averaged 1.03 MMb/d in January, surpassing the 1-million-barrel mark for the first month since June 2019 and +338 kb/d from the Biden administration’s initial November 2022 sanctions relief measures.

Key Intel

  • Special License Uncertainty: The special license granted to Chevron in November 2022 that allowed expanded operations in Venezuela remains in place. However, Trump administration commentary in the latter half of January indicated this license could be ‘re-explored’, amended, or revoked. According to preliminary BBG data, Chevron’s exports of Hamaca syncrude jumped sharply by 50% M/M to 7-year highs of ~140 kb/d in February ahead of potential U.S.-Venezuela policy changes.

  • Near-Term Deadlines: The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) extended a series of licenses in November 2024 to 1) prevent bondholders from enforcing rights to CITGO shares until March 7, 2025, and 2) allow Halliburton, Baker Hughes, SLB, and Weatherford International to maintain assets in Venezuela until May 2025.

What to Watch:

  • The Trump administration’s second maximum pressure campaign on Iran could ease imminent sanctions-reinstatement risks for Venezuela to offset price impacts. In an interview last Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox, “We are committed to bringing the Iranians [down to] 100,000 barrels-a-day of oil exports” from current levels of approximately 1.6 MMb/d.

  • Three scenarios could alter the Trump administration’s Venezuela policy: a) the Maduro regime reneges on its agreement to accept U.S. deportation flights, b) OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia) agrees to ease voluntary production cuts earlier or faster than current commentary suggests, or c) U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations ease sanctions on Russian crude flows (long-term).

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.