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- Brief: Guyanese Crude Diffs & Easing Canadian Oil Tariff Concerns
Brief: Guyanese Crude Diffs & Easing Canadian Oil Tariff Concerns
Guyana's medium Payara Gold erases its brief premium over Brent as West Coast refiners' concerns about U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude imports fade
Mobius Intel Brief:
Guyana’s latest production data showed the Exxon-led consortium produced an average of 648 kb/d from the offshore Stabroek Block in February— in line with the group’s average output across 4Q24.
Meanwhile, the first three months of 2025 have proven far more dynamic for Guyanese crude differentials as PADD 5 refiners navigate the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude.
Key Intel
Payara Gold-Brent: Guyana’s latest stream of medium Payara Gold crude jumped to a rare premium over Brent after President Trump unveiled initial plans for tariffs on Canadian crude imports in late January, fueling West Coast refiners’ concerns about interrupted supplies via Canada’s expanded 890 kb/d TMX pipeline.
Guyana v. Canada: The May 2024 commercialization of the expanded 890 kb/d TMX pipeline to the West Coast erased over half of Guyana’s share of PADD 5 crude imports, cutting West Coast refiners’ purchases of Guyanese barrels from a peak of 276 kb/d in June ‘24 to 103 kb/d in Nov and 121 kb/d in Dec (chart below).
USMCA Exemptions: Payara Gold erased its brief premium and returned to a ~$1/bbl discount to Brent in early March (chart below) after the Trump administration acknowledged likely exemptions for goods that meet the USMCA’s rules of origin requirements.
