Brief: USMCA Exemptions v. U.S. Crude Imports From Canada, Mexico

Mobius Intel Brief:

Today’s weekly DoE data showed total U.S. crude imports from Mexico sank to 195 kb/d last week— the lowest seasonal level on record and the fifth-lowest weekly average across all weeks since at least 2010. Similarly, U.S. crude imports from Canada dropped ~541 kb/d W/W to 3.14 MMb/d—the lowest seasonal level since March 2023.

Key Intel:

• U.S. imports of Canadian crude fell nearly 960 kb/d over the trailing two weeks as the Trump administration mulled its final verdict for tariffs on Canadian energy.

• Midwest refineries’ utilization rates have held at or above the top of the five-year seasonal range for the first eleven weeks of 2025 to preempt tariff-related disruptions. PADD 2 utilization rates eased moderately over the seven days ending March 14 from 93.2% to 90.9%.

• U.S. crude imports from Mexico dropped to 195 kb/d—the lowest March reading and the fifth-lowest weekly average since at least 2010. Last week’s imports from Mexico compare to a 5-year seasonal average of over 700 kb/d. Pemex’s production declines and the ongoing commercialization of the 340 kb/d Dos Bocas (Olmeca) refinery will likely weigh on U.S. imports from Mexico through 2025.

Tariffs & USMCA Rules of Origin

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