TTF's Conflict Premium

Mobius Intel Brief:

Disruption risks from Russia-Ukraine fighting near the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline are overcoming healthy (~86% full) European gas inventories to lift front-month Dutch TTF to 2024 highs — starkly contrasting against Henry Hub’s price performance over the same period.

Intel Brief Outline

• The share of European gas supplies at risk of disruption and primary European buyers of affected Russian gas.

• Notable changes in assumed gas flows to Europe through Ukraine

• Normalized TTF v. Henry Hub price performance

• Signals from the TTF forward curve

• Why TTF’s near-term price outlook skews to the downside

Pro charts, statistics, and analyst insights below.