TTF Rally Succumbs to Steady Supplies

Specs add length despite healthy storage and bearish demand landscape

October 31, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Dec ‘24 Dutch TTF shed over 5% to $12.485/MMBTU on Thursday, settling below the starting point of its short-lived ~9% rally between Oct 18 and Oct 29 as Europe’s relatively healthy supply picture added to warmer weather forecasts and bearish industrial demand signals.

  • Key Intel: Europe’s supply uncertainty remains a potent sentiment catalyst. Mideast conflict risks and the likely demise of the Ukraine-Gazprom transit agreement in December has propped up speculators’ long interest in Dutch TTF despite 95.2% full storage and restored Norwegian pipeline gas flows. While gas supplies through Ukraine represent a nominal (5%) share of Europe’s total, front-month TTF plunged today after a second report suggested Hungarian/Slovakian firms are nearing an alternative transit agreement with Azerbaijan for 2025+. Furthermore, European consumption indicators are failing to counter softening supply fears. A closer look at EU LNG facilities’ daily send outs for distribution show rates falling to their lowest seasonal level in three years, suggesting Europe’s near-term demand prospects skew to the downside.

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