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Tracking Chinese Demand
A closer look at YTD SHFE steel HRC price action, inventories, and real-time vessel activity reinforces bearish demand signals for China’s 4Q24/1H25 commodity imports.
Mobius Intel Brief:
China’s General Administration of Customs reported robust export growth in August as producers accelerated outbound shipments ahead of an increasingly lengthy list of tariffs (led by the U.S.’ forthcoming Section 301 policy updates).
The GACC’s August data showed an 8.7% Y/Y increase in exports — the fastest growth rate in 17 months. Meanwhile, the GACC’s import figures reinforced the bearish Chinese demand sentiment weighing on commodity markets — August imports grew by a mere 0.5% Y/Y from 7.2% in July.
Last month’s shifts in the GACC’s total export/import volumes are a lagging reflection of YTD trends in the world’s largest steel-producing market.
As outlined below, near-term tariffs and ballooning steel stockpiles are strong export incentives. However, despite exporters’ race against tariffs, factors like China’s struggling domestic construction sector have ensured stockpiles continue building.
A closer analysis of real-time and YTD vessel activity in China’s main steel-producing hub provides a glimpse into 4Q24-1H25’s commodity demand outlook.
Commodity Update:
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