The Fuel Problem for Google's SMRs

Mobius Intel Brief:

Yesterday, Google announced a deal to purchase up to 500 MW of nuclear-generated power from six to seven small modular reactors (SMRs) developed by advanced nuclear technology firm Kairos Power.

Key Intel:

• Kairos aims to bring its first SMR online by 2030 and phase-in subsequent deployments through 2035.

• While Kairos’ regulatory approval timeline remains a considerable hurdle for its ambitious deployment schedule, the firms’ upstream fuel supply chain reflects a more pressing uncertainty — where to source sufficient quantities of enriched uranium after the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act took effect in August.

• Google’s deal reinforces long-term support for emerging nuclear technologies as a solution for reliable, steady-state power. However, these technologies are unlikely to satisfy pre-2035 load growth due to burdensome regulatory pathways and an undeveloped domestic fuel supply chain.

• Knock-on effects for unmet near-term load growth remain underappreciated in domestic natural gas markets.

A closer look at Kairos’ fuel supply

Kairos’ FHR molten salt reactor uses a newly deployed fuel, Tri-structural isotropic particle fuel (TRISO), that contains uranium, carbon, and oxygen in a ‘fuel kernel’ surrounded by carbon- and ceramic-based materials.

• Russia was the US’ largest supplier of TRISO until its invasion of Ukraine. With sanctions on Russian uranium imports taking effect in August 2024, US TRISO stocks are currently estimated to contain fewer than three years’ supply.

As noted in recent discussions on The Energy Desk, the US uranium supply chain requires a sustained signal to restart production and enrichment — processes that will likely unfold on a longer timescale than prevailing market narratives appreciate.

• Current domestic uranium production represents just 0.11% of the equivalent uranium oxide loaded into US civilian reactors. US enrichment capacity (4.9 MM SWU) represents one third of the enrichment capacity required to fuel the US’ operable nuclear reactor fleet for a single year.

WWMD: What Would Mobius Do?

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