Energy Shots #113:

The Energy Diet of Humanoid Robots

Developers of autonomous humanoid robots sometimes refer to their burgeoning industry as a Field of Dreams ‘build it and they will buy’ opportunity — i.e., the market is only limited by technology, not demand.

The potential applications for humanoid robots are abundant. However, firms behind the robots — Tesla, Figure, and Boston Dynamics, to name a few — all acknowledge a primary use-case with immediate buyers: manufacturing and warehousing.

• Anecdotal Evidence: Roughly 40% of US manufacturers say labor shortages are a primary risk to long-term revenue.

• Modeled Economic Impact: Deloitte modeled a shortage of 2 million US manufacturing workers by 2030 with a potential opportunity cost of $1 trillion/year.

While the timeline to commercial-scale manufacturing and warehousing operations powered (in some meaningful capacity) by humanoid robots retains significant uncertainty, it can likely be measured in years and not decades.

Recent demonstrations from Figure, Tesla, and Boston Dynamics show varying potential for tasks like carrying parts, organizing bins, and participating in vehicle production lines — below the complexity required for a dystopian sci-fi storyline but impressive enough to merit real-world trials.

• For example, BMW is already testing Figure’s 02 humanoid robot at its Spartanburg, SC plant

The potential economic impact and surge in investor interest (~$15B in 2024) behind humanoid robots warrants closer attention for energy industry participants.

• Each unit of work captured by robots transfers energy consumption from kilocalories to kilowatts — and robots are far less efficient energy consumers than humans.

Energy Shots #113 offers two example scenarios for participants to consider that isolate humanoid robot use in manufacturing and warehousing applications like BMW’s Figure 02 test or an Amazon distribution center:

1. Replacing lost man-hours¹ from unmet labor demand² in US manufacturing and warehousing sectors.

2. Replacing lost man-hours from labor shortages and capturing existing man-hours in US manufacturing and warehousing sectors.

Note: According to industry data, the current landscape of humanoid robot technology consumes energy at a rate of 0.5 kW/hr to 3.75 kW/hr, depending on the application.

1. Replacing Lost Man-Hours from Labor Shortages in Manufacturing and Warehousing Sectors

The replacement energy (kWh) required for humanoid robots to offset lost man-hours from labor shortages reaches 7 billion kWh at 3 kWh consumption rates per robot and 95% market penetration.

2. Capturing Lost and Existing Man-Hours in US Manufacturing and Warehousing Sectors

Extending our model to the total pool of lost man-hours and existing man-hours in the US manufacturing and warehousing sectors shows the potential energy impact of humanoid robots reaches an impressive 27 billion kWh of annual electricity demand at 50% market penetration and 1.5 kW/h consumption rates per robot.

Context:

All US EVs consumed an estimated 7.6 billion kWh in 2023, meaning a scenario with humanoid robots capturing 50% of all manufacturing and warehousing labor hours requires over 3.6x as much electricity, excluding line-loss and charging inefficiencies.

While 50% market share seems extreme in the current landscape, our modeling only includes two potential use-cases — manufacturing and warehousing — that represent a combined ~15 million employees (<10% of US labor force).

1  Lost Man-Hours: (Labor Shortage) x (Sector-Specific Annual Work Hours)

2  Labor Shortage: (Sector Job Demand - Sector Filled Positions)

Send follow-up questions to [email protected].

See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.