Six Days to Strike

Mobius Intel Brief:

45,000 dockworkers at ~36 major East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are poised to go on strike on October 1, disrupting approximately $3.7 billion of freight per day of offline operations.

• Key Intel: Disruptions from the ILA-USMX contract dispute and the union’s +80% wage demands will fuel input price growth. Supply chain “reflation” acts as an accelerant to the inflationary effects of the Fed’s 50 bps September cut. Compounded price growth would restrict the Fed’s ability to cut rates (magnitude/frequency) in subsequent meetings, adding knock-on pressure to payrolls and broader economic activity.

Strike threats are already elevating congestion at affected ports and forcing vessels to reroute to West Coast ports, adding to producers’ input costs.

• The Port of Los Angeles handled over 960,000 20-foot container units in August, the busiest non-pandemic month on record and 16% higher Y/Y.

• The 97 container vessels received by the Los Angeles portion of the port complex set a four-year high.

• Neighboring operators at the Port of Long Beach reported the busiest month on record in August.

Importers’ race against strikes and section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods coincides with historically elevated maritime shipping costs, adding incremental costs to imported goods.

Pro charts, statistics, and analyst insights below.