Tracking Norway's Gas Outage

Norwegian maintenance season props up TTF despite EU inventories reaching 92% filled this week.

Mobius Intel Brief:

Supply-side fears and substantial spec long interest have propped up nearby Dutch TTF since mid-July, with this year’s Norwegian maintenance season compounding low-probability risks to Russian pipeline gas flows through Ukraine.

Easing concerns are apparent in TTF’s -8% price action since August 30, as EU gas supplies ballooned to 92.6% full this week, extending above the bloc’s November 1 target for 90% filled inventories.

Still, a closer look at Norwegian (Gassco) pipeline gas flows shows outages remain in full effect through September 5, with total exit noms down nearly 50% from early August’s peak.

Intel Brief Outline

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