Industrial Demand Signals

Mobius Intel Brief:

Industrial activity indices for US and Euro Area manufacturing hubs sank to the bottom-decile of decade+ historical ranges in September.

• Key Intel: US manufacturing payrolls fell sharply in national and regional indices while producers’ selling price inflation gained, posing contradicting signals to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

• U.S. industrial and freight activity accounts for approximately 75% of total distillate consumption, signaling downside skew persists for 4Q24-1Q25 diesel demand.

• German industrial and business conditions indicate elevated odds for a double-dip recession after Q2’s -0.1% GDP growth.

WWMD: What Would Mobius Do?

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This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.