Guyana Adds to Near-Term Supply Outlook

Mobius Intel Brief:

Guyana’s surge into global crude markets as a newly-minted major producer adds another variable to the near-term supply/demand equation. As OPEC prepares to unwind 180 Kb/d of its 2.2 MMb/d voluntary output cuts in December, Guyana’s latest daily production data shows September’s daily average output gained 47.1 Kb/d month-on-month to over 659 Kb/d — the highest on record and over 15 Kb/d more than the previous high of 644 Kb/d in June 2024.

• Key Intel: Guyanese output from the Liza field in the Exxon consortium’s Stabroek Block recovered from late-June/early-August’s planned outages to an average of 411 Kb/d in September. Earlier this month, Exxon announced plans to increase production from the Liza field’s Unity FPSO by 18 Kb/d. Meanwhile, Payara (Exxon’s latest) held production near its historical maximum at 248 Kb/d for the month. The Exxon consortium’s fourth development, Yellowtail, is set to scale production to 250,000 bpd in the second half of 2025, bringing total Guyanese output to approximately 920 Kb/d.

A closer look at the numbers:

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