German Power Prices Hit Energy Crisis Levels on Dunkelflaute

Wind and solar output plummets in Europe's first Dunkelflaute of the year, sending power prices to their highest since August 2022's BTU shortage

November 07, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Cloudy, windless weather pushed German power prices to the highest since August 2022’s BTU crisis as renewable generation collapsed on Europe’s first ‘Dunkelflaute’ of the year.

  • Key Intel: The consequences of Germany’s ‘Energiewende’ energy policy are apparent in this week’s power prices that surged over €820/MWh. Germany’s combined wind and solar output fell from a mid-day peak of 33,435 MWh on Nov. 1 to a mid-day peak of 5,758 MWh on Nov. 7, concentrating demand for dispatchable thermal resources like coal and natural gas. German and broader EU gas inventories are dropping accordingly despite this week’s warmer-than-average weather, expanding their Y/Y deficit to over 30 Bcf and 164 Bcf, respectively. Front-month Dutch TTF responded to ‘Dunkelflaute’ by gaining ~5.35% from Nov. 1 to ~$13.18/MMBtu Thursday.

A Closer Look:

German power prices jumped to over two-year highs this week as dark and calm ‘Dunkelflaute’ weather exposed the grid reliability risks of anti-nuclear/anti-fossil ‘Energiewende’ transition policies.

A look at Germany’s trailing seven days of hourly generation data shows the extent of lost generation from intermittent renewables — onshore and offshore wind averaged just 270 MWh on November 6 from an average of 20,754 MWh on November 1.

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