ES #151: The Trump Venezuela Plan

Bullish and bearish consequences of Operation Resolution Absolute and the U.S. push for a post-Maduro Venezuela

January 04, 2026 • Est. Reading Time: 6 minutes

Energy Shots #151

The U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas in an overnight operation dubbed Resolution Absolute on Jan 3. Maduro and his wife were flown to New York where they will face indictments for narcoterrorism in federal court on Monday.

In a Jan 3 press conference, President Trump detailed the operation and the administration’s initial transition plan (see below) for Venezuela in the post-Maduro era, which, unsurprisingly, included frequent discussion about the fate of Venezuela’s oil sector and the country’s world-leading proved oil reserves of 304 billion barrels.

The Trump Venezuela Plan

  1. Duration of U.S. intervention in Venezuela

We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition. So, we don't want to be involved with having somebody else get in. And we have the same situation that we had for the last long period of years. So we are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition. And it has to be judicious because that's what we're all about. We want peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela…. We’re there now, but we’re going to stay until such time as a proper transition can take place.

  1. U.S.-led development of Venezuela’s oil sector

As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place. We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country…

We're going to rebuild the oil infrastructure which will cost billions of dollars. It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly. They will be reimbursed for what they're doing, but that's going to be paid and we're going to get the oil flowing the way it should be. As you know, it was just a minor flow. It was actually a minor flow for what they have, but we're going to run it properly and we're going to make sure the people of Venezuela are taken care of.

  1. Status of U.S. Embargo on Venezuelan oil trade

Very importantly, the embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full effect. The American armada remains poised in position and the United States retains all military options until United States demands have been fully met and fully satisfied. All political and military figures and Venezuela should understand what happened to Madura can happen to them and it will happen to them if they aren't just fair even to their people.

Consequences for Global Oil Markets

For global oil markets, the combination of geopolitical escalation and potential expansion of Venezuelan crude production opens a nuanced debate between bullish and bearish.

  • Near-Term: This weekend’s operation will likely support crude’s geopolitical risk premium and reinforce downside skew for Venezuelan crude production (bullish). The U.S.’ ongoing blockade of Venezuelan oil trade has accelerated storage builds and forced production curtailments of >170 kb/d. The U.S. pressure campaign is likely to continue until the Maduro government is replaced, suggesting the current downward trend in Venezuelan production and exports will be prolonged.

  • Mid-Term: Stabilization of the Venezuelan government and easing restrictions on Venezuela’s oil trade could unlock the >65 MMb of oil in onshore and floating storage while incrementally supporting export growth to ~1 MMb/d from ~500 kb/d in the final half of December. An alternative Western Hemispheric source of heavy sour crude will ease U.S. reliance on Canadian barrels and offset the decline in Mexican imports to the USGC.

  • Long-Term: Successful U.S.-led development of Venezuela’s world-leading proved oil reserves of 304 billion barrels could see Venezuelan production return to pre-Bolivarian Revolution output of ~3.5 MMb/d+ on a decadal timeline with growth to >2 MMb/d possible before the end of the decade.

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See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.