ES #132: Restructuring S. America's Producer Hierarchy

Argentina has quietly emerged as South America's second-largest crude producer, reaching average daily output of 756 kb/d in December to generate the country's first energy trade surplus since 2003.

April 13, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Energy Shots #132:

Guyana’s rapid jump from 0 barrels per day in 2019 to over 650 kb/d at year-end 2024 has rightfully captured the attention of global crude market participants.

While the fast-growing producer is frequently cited as a primary source of new non-OPEC supply, Argentina—under libertarian President Javier Milei— has quietly scaled South America’s ranks to become the continent’s third-largest producer by average daily output in December (756 kb/d).

Powered by the Vaca Muerta formation, Argentina’s energy sector has emerged as a cornerstone of Milei’s economic revitalization/disinflation agenda, generating the country’s largest energy trade surplus ($5.67 billion) in nearly two decades last year off of $9.68 billion in energy exports against imports of $4.01 billion.

Vaca Muerta: The Dead Cow Formation

With estimated technically recoverable resources of 308 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 16 billion barrels of shale oil/condensate, the Vaca Muerta formation positions Argentina among the world's top five holders of unconventional hydrocarbon resources—and its development is evident in 2021-2024 production growth.

Recent Growth Metrics:

  • Crude oil production reached a December 2024 peak of 756,452 barrels per day—the highest monthly output since 2003.

  • Natural gas production reached an intra-year peak of 5.40 Bcf/d in August 2024—the highest monthly average in 21 years.

  • Avg. annual production in 2024: 700,508 bbl/d of oil, 4.91 Bcf/d of natural gas.

  • 2021-2024 Annual Average Growth: Oil +36.4%, Gas +12.0%

  • 2021-2024 Annual Average CAGR: Oil +10.9% per year, Gas +3.8% per year

  • Jan 2021 to Dec 2024 Point-to-Point Growth: Oil +55.2%, Gas +10.8%

  • 2023-2024 Year-over-Year Growth: Oil +10.3%, Gas +5.4%

Reconfiguring South America’s Producer Hierarchy

Argentina’s average daily oil production of 756 kb/d in December ranks third among South American producers, jumping over Columbia’s December output of 755 kb/d.

  • Brazil remains the continent's largest producer with December output of 3.42 MMb/d.

  • Venezuela: Venezuela’s crude production has recovered from COVID-era and Trump 1.0 sanction-induced lows of under 400 kb/d to ~1 MMb/d.

  • Columbia: Columbian oil production fell from a 2024 peak of 790 kb/d in April to 755 kb/d in December. Production has declined from over 1 MMb/d in Aug 2015.

  • Guyana has emerged as the region's fastest-growing producer, reaching approximately 650 kb/d by year-end 2024.

  • Ecuador: Ecuador’s output has held relatively flat near 470 kb/d since 2022.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation concerning the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is intended for Mobius clients only and is not considered promotional material.