ES #128: Tripling Global Nuclear Generation by 2050

Energy Shots #128:

Forecasts for a step-change in electricity demand growth from emerging technologies has blurred the distinction between global technology and energy sectors in a mutual effort to secure sufficient “Compute”— or the reliable processing power required to develop computationally-intensive large-language models (LLMs).

As highlighted across the Energy Shots archive, the race for always-available Compute has evolved as stakeholders recognize the reliability limitations of intermittent generation resources like wind and solar.

While wind and solar will see interest for supplemental electricity, the list of suitable generation fuels that can satisfy steady-state, 24/7/365 requirements has narrowed to two primary candidates: natural gas and nuclear.

In line with this theme, several commercial Large Energy Users, including Amazon, Meta, Google, joined roughly two dozen countries this week in signing the World Nuclear Association’s pledge to support at least tripling global nuclear power generation by 2050.

• The WNA’s goal would see global operating nuclear power generating capacity increase from approximately 396 GW in early 2025 to nearly 1,200 GW by 2050— or 2x the capacity added over the last 70 years in roughly 35% of the time.

Tech giants’ nuclear pledge came one day before the Department of Energy’s updated fourth-quarter domestic uranium market report, providing a timely opportunity to evaluate the WNA’s capacity goal against the structural underpinnings of U.S. and global nuclear supply chains.

U.S. Uranium Production Surges 1,264% Y/Y…

According to the DoE’s preliminary fourth-quarter data, domestic uranium production jumped 1,264% Y/Y in 2024 to 677,000 pounds of uranium concentrate.

However, as shown below, last year’s output followed the second-lowest year of domestic uranium production since the beginning of the U.S.’ 20th-century nuclear buildout.

For context, comparing domestic uranium production to total uranium used in U.S. nuclear power reactors shows last year’s domestically-sourced supplies represent less than 2% of the fuel used in domestic reactors— up from 0.11% in 2023.

Further dissecting the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain shows similar energy security risks resulting from limited domestic uranium enrichment capacity.

• At the start of 2024, domestic enrichment services represented just 28% of the total required by the U.S.’ 102 GW nuclear fleet.

• Meanwhile, foreign enrichment services provided nearly 11 million separative work units (SWUs) out of the total 15.2 million SWUs purchased by U.S. nuclear reactor owners and operators. Over half of these foreign-origin enrichment services came from Russia and China.

Global Enrichment Bottlenecks

According to the World Nuclear Association’s latest data, six providers account for approximately 99% of global uranium enrichment capacity. Russia’s Rosatom and China’s CNNC represent roughly 56% of available uranium enrichment capacity. Despite accounting for nearly 26% of global operating nuclear generation capacity, the U.S.’ maintains just 8% of global uranium enrichment capacity.

Estimated Enrichment Required for Current Plans & The WNA’s Goal

According to February 2025 data, there are 419 operating nuclear reactor units globally with combined capacity of 394.5 GW. There are another 69 projects with combined capacity of 74.9 GW under construction, 92 projects with combined capacity of 97.1 GW in pre-construction permitting, and 178 announced projects with proposed capacity of 126.8 GW.

In total, current development plans would add just 298.8 GW of generation capacity, assuming all pre-operational projects are completed within the next decade.

Assuming enrichment facilities convert uranium to 4% enriched fuel, which is below the level used in Gen IV units that consume High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), global enrichment capacity will need to increase by approximately 75% from current levels to ~110 million SWU/year.

To reach the WNA’s tripled capacity target by 2050, global enrichment capacity will need to increase to approximately 193 million SWU/year.

Takeaways

Policymakers and Compute stakeholders underappreciate the time and resources required to triple nuclear generation capacity globally. Domestically, an underdeveloped uranium supply chain, insufficient enrichment capacity to support existing nuclear fuel requirements, unclear policies for nuclear waste disposal, and an evolving-but-complex regulatory landscape will complicate plans to swiftly deploy new generation capacity before 2035.

As a result, natural gas will likely meet the lion’s share of pre-2035 demand growth that requires reliable Compute.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

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