ES #121: Highs and Lows of 2024 CONUS Power Generation

Lower 48 gas-fired generation grows over 4% Y/Y in 2024 to a new record 1.73 trillion kWh, increasing its share of CONUS electricity demand met to 42%.

January 19, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 5 minutes

Energy Shots #121:

Energy Shots #121 takes a closer look at daily grid operating data submitted to the EIA by CONUS balancing authorities in 2024 to: 1) evaluate notable changes in generation and demand and 2) establish a baseline for grid operators' projections of a new era of decades-high peak load and total electricity demand growth.

2024 Power Generation Highs and Lows:

Cumulative continental United States (CONUS) gas-fired generation gained over 4.2% Y/Y to a new record 1,735 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024.

Cumulative CONUS solar generation grew at the fastest pace in the lower 48 gen stack, jumping over 37% Y/Y to a new record of 204 billion kWh in 2024.

  • Solar generation grew at the fastest pace in at least five years, gaining at over double the rate of 2023’s +17%.

Seasonally inconsistent wind generation appeared again in 2024’s data. Cumulative lower 48 US wind generation gained 7.8% Y/Y for the full year. Meanwhile, annualized growth rates for months in 2024 ranged between -10% and +40.8% Y/Y.

Coal-fired output sank 2.8% Y/Y to a recent low of 671 billion kWh — approximately 28.5% below coal-fired generation in 2019.

Despite faster growth in renewable output, coal retirements helped lower 48 natural gas-fired generation increase its share of CONUS demand to 42% in 2024 from 41% in 2023 and 37% in 2022.

  • CONUS coal-fired generation retirements cut coal-fired output to 16% of lower 48 electricity demand in 2024 from 20% in 2022.

  • Solar generation gained from a 3.6% share of CONUS electricity demand in 2023 to 5% in 2024.

  • The share of CONUS electricity demand met by lower 48 wind generation held flat at 11% from 10% in 2023 and 11% in 2022.

  • Nuclear generation remained little changed, providing approximately 19% of CONUS electricity demand for the third-consecutive year.

CONUS Electricity Demand Growth Slows in 2H24

Cumulative CONUS electricity demand growth gained nearly 1% Y/Y to 4,119 billion kWh. However, the aggregated full-year data masks a bifurcation in annualized growth rates between 1H24 and 2H24.

  • Lower 48 electricity demand growth slowed from +4.33% Y/Y in 1H24 to -2.04% Y/Y in 2H24 despite a negligible Y/Y difference in population-weighted degree days since September.

  • Slower electricity demand growth in 2H24 aligns with changes in broader US economic activity in the second-half of the year. While many of the deteriorating economic indicators are derived from anecdotal data not reflected in US government surveys, slower electricity demand growth alongside these indicators does warrant consideration.

Go Deeper:

See you next Sunday.

ES.

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