Energy Shots #116:

At the Intersection of Energy and Space

Space has never been more influenced by human activity than this year.

While nascent, new frontiers for the global space industry are, in several ways, new frontiers for global energy markets.

• SpaceX launching an 11 million-pound Starship rocket to an altitude of 40 miles is one example of this intersection.

• Designing a fuel propellant system capable of leveraging in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) for methane production on Mars is another with immediate repercussions for “Earth-bound” energy markets.

Furthermore, feats like SpaceX’s reusable Starship/Super Heavy rocket system and its ability to lift 100-ton payloads to space open up tangential frontiers that similarly add new sources of energy demand, albeit in potentially unfamiliar ways.

• For example, funds like A16Z named offshoots of SpaceX’s capabilities to their top ideas for 2025+, including Sci-Fi-esq opportunities like space-centric data centers or zero-gravity pharmaceutical manufacturing.

As highlighted in Energy Shots #108 (Fueling Starships), ambitious plans for rocket systems are a potential source of underappreciated demand growth for fuels like natural gas, particularly as the industry transitions engines away from kerosene-type rocket fuel like RP-1.

• A single Starship launch into low-earth orbit requires approximately 62.2 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of natural gas (~6.4 contracts), and SpaceX plans to fly an average of three flights per day per Starship across a fleet of 1,000 Starships — a goal that requires roughly 186.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of methane.

While these rates of energy consumption are likely several years away, 2024’s record-shattering space activity suggests meaningful incremental energy demand growth from the global space industry is closer than many may imagine — providing a perfect opportunity for Energy Shots #116 to highlight this year’s trends.

2024’s Record-Breaking Space Activity

Global orbital launches reached a new annual record after November’s 29 launches raised the YTD total to 229, surpassing the previous record of 221 set last year.

Record orbital flights are translating into a step-change in payload tonnage launched to space in recent years, led almost entirely by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket system.

• Between 2017 and 2024, total payload tonnage launched to space by all countries grew by a CAGR of approximately 29.8% to 2,444 metric tons.

The United States (SpaceX) represents approximately 2,110 tons (86%) of the world’s total payload tonnage launched to space so far this year.

• Between 2017 and 2024, payload tonnage launched to space by the United States grew by a CAGR of approximately 44.7%.

Behind the scenes, lower barriers to launching commercial, governmental, and research-related satellites has translated into similarly rapid growth in the number of objects launched into space each year.

• Calendar year totals between 2017 and 2023 show the number of objects launched into space globally grew by a CAGR of 34.7% to 2,664 last year.

• Again, the United States (SpaceX) leads the rest of the world with 2,166 objects launched into space last year, posting a 2017-2023 CAGR of approximately 42.6%.

New Frontiers Led by SpaceX’s Starship Rocket System

SpaceX’s Starship rocket and Super Heavy booster system has not progressed out of testing phases into commercial launches. Still, the system’s capabilities are seen as the primary freight method for future space technology.

As shown below, the number of days between Starship launches has dropped from 212 between flights 1 and 2 to 37 days between flights 5 and 6.

According to SpaceX President and COO, Gwyneth Shotwell, the company plans to max out its FAA limit of 25 launches in 2025 and anticipates 400 launches over the next four years — a feat that the Falcon 9 system has yet to accomplish despite 14 years in operation.

• Should SpaceX reach an average of 100 flights after 2025, Starship’s ‘methalox’ fuel system will consume approximately 6.2 Bcf of natural gas annually (~640 contracts). While unsubstantial in the context of current US gas demand, a CAGR of roughly 266% from 2023 is indicative of the industry’s potential in a decade.

See you next Sunday.

ES.

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