ERCOT Renewables' Fall Record

Mild temps and the strongest wind output for the trailing 30 days hits ERCOT's generation stack this week.

October 17, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Short-lived cool temperatures and high winds are hovering over ERCOT and SPP ISOs for the next four days, providing a clear look at the downstream challenges of renewables’ shoulder season performance on thermal energies’ economics.

Key Intel:
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  • ERCOT hourly grid conditions show the Texas wind fleet reached its highest output in the last 30 days at 18.8 GW through 16:00 CDT — approximately 40% higher than the 30-day 95th percentile.

  • 30-day peak wind output offset the effects of cloudy conditions on solar, raising renewables’ share of load-met to nearly 70% — approximately 1.5x the trailing 30-day maximum and, according to available ISO data, the highest Sep-Oct share on record.

  • High renewable output alongside reduced power demand from cool temperatures sent ERCOT’s net load to an average of less than 17.5 GW for Oct 17 (through 16:00 CDT). Hourly net load at 15:00 CDT fell nearly 60% below the trailing 30-day minimum to 15.1 GW.

  • Fossil thermal generation (coal + gas) fell 65% below the trailing 30-day minimum to 11.8 GW by 16:00 CDT, with gas-fired output sinking 70% its trailing 30-day low to just 8.2 GW for the same period.

This week’s weather patterns reveal increasingly pronounced duck curves taking effect for the Texas ISO, presenting new seasonal challenges to emerging and traditional energies’ economics.

  • These challenges will escalate as intermittency grows alongside renewables’ share of the overall generation stack. Immediate consequences of VREs’ volatility are evident for natural gas demand. As noted by Mobius VP Rishi Sahay on The Energy Desk, consequences extend into the economics of new energy technologies like battery storage systems.

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