ERCOT Prices Surge to $5,000/MWh on Record Demand

Plus, a note on payroll revisions and the Fed's lagging data feed

August 21, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

ERCOT peak power demand broke another all-time high on August 20, with preliminary load data reaching 85,931 MW versus the previous confirmed peak load record of 85,612 MW on August 10, 2023.

Resource planning challenges are evident in August 20’s wholesale price action, as real-time prices surged to $5,000/MWh versus ERCOT’s day-ahead forecast of $648/MWh.

Today’s Intel Brief dissects ERCOT’s August 20 fuel mix performance against prior record peak demand days, covering changes to wind, solar, natural gas, and coal generation and the follow-on effects to consider in the new era of power demand growth.

However, before covering ERCOT’s record demand, today’s Labor Department payroll revisions for the April ‘23 to March ‘24 period warrant brief commentary.

Payrolls Revised Lower by 818,000 for Apr. ‘23 to Mar. ‘24

According to the first of the Labor Department’s two benchmark annual revisions, total U.S. payrolls fell 818,000 below initial estimates. This would be the largest downward revision since March 2009’s -902,000 if sustained through the department's second report next year, confirming our conclusion from yesterday’s Intel Brief that the Fed’s lagging data feed retains significant downside risks relative to anecdotal indicators.

Intel Brief Outline

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