The End of Panamanian Pandemonium

Updates to Panama and front-loaded import demand ahead of U.S.-China tariffs

Mobius Intel Brief:

Before enacting drought-related draft restrictions, the Panama Canal oversaw approximately 3% of global maritime trade and 46% of Northeast Asia-U.S. East Coast container shipments.

Record-low water levels forced the Panama Canal Authority to limit vessel transits throughout 2023 and early 2024, ultimately cutting the waterway’s daily cargo and tanker trade by more than 52% and 51%, respectively.

This week, the Panama Canal Authority lifted these draft and transit restrictions as the end of El Niño-related weather restores water levels in the artificial Gatun Lake.

The steady rise in Panama Canal vessel traffic coincides with front-loaded container imports from Asia as importers race to restock inventories ahead of U.S. tariffs and a possible ILA union strike. Global and regional freight rates reflect this concentrated seasonal demand, inviting bearish follow-on effects for 2H24 commodity demand and economic performance.

Intel Brief Outline

Subscribe to Mobius Market Pro to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of Mobius Market Pro to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In

A subscription gets you:
Exclusive natural gas and crude complex market analysis from Mobius' VP of Markets and Research, Zane Curry (4x/week)
Unlimited access to Mobius' Energy Shots trend-spotting research
Unrestricted access to Mobius' data-centric Intel Briefs and analyst takeaways to turn headlines into actionable insights
Open lines of communication with Mobius Market Research to pose questions, request topic coverage, and get a sanity check on shifting market dynamics