CoT: WTI & Product Bulls Exit

A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning

February 03, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

CFTC/ICE Commitment of Traders data through January 28, 2025

Fund managers’ net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub increased 5.5k contracts W/W to just shy of 52k (501.5 bcf*) as exiting shorts offset a more modest decrease in spec length.

  • Spec open interest (long+short) fell to its lowest in over a year as participants wait on the sidelines for clear fundamental cues from the Trump administration and Mother Nature.

Fund managers’ combined net length across ICE and NYMEX crude and product benchmarks fell by 47 MMb W/W as decreases for WTI, RBOB, and heating oil offset a 45 MMb increase in specs’ net interest in ICE Brent.

  • Specs slashed long interest in WTI by nearly 48 MMb W/W while increasing short interest by 11 MMb W/W for a total net position of 192 MMb. Managed money open interest returned to ‘low’ levels relative to the trailing 10YR distribution.

  • Heating oil shorts have increased in recent weeks to historically elevated levels — though still shy of last fall’s record short interest.

  • Managed money net interest in NYMEX RBOB has declined by nearly 28 MMb since the last week of November on a fairly even contribution from new shorts and long exits.

Subscribe to Mobius Market Research Pro to unlock
this week’s chart decks, detailed changes, and analyst notes.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.