CoT: Uncertainty With A Bearish Tilt

A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning

November 04, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

CFTC and ICE Commitment of Traders data for the seven days ending Oct 29 showed fund managers’ net interest in ICE/NYMEX crude and products fell by a combined 72.4 MMb W/W on both long exits and new shorts. Speculators’ net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub fell for the fourth-consecutive week as new shorts offset modest growth in long interest for back-to-back weeks.

  • Net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub fell by a modest 23.95 bcf* to a net short position of -1,282.7 bcf* — the lowest since March 2020.

  • Speculators’ futures and options holdings posted a net decrease for four out of five ICE and NYMEX crude and product contracts in the seven days ending Oct 29. Net length dropped into the bottom decile of 10YR distributions for four of five contracts — NYMEX RBOB is the only contract without elevated long/short skew. Specs open interest (longs+shorts) in NYMEX WTI remains near record lows, indicating near-term uncertainty from the US presidential election, OPEC’s output plans, and evolving geopolitical risks on three fronts.

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