CoT: Length Returns to The Crude Complex

A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning

December 23, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

CFTC/ICE Commitment of Traders data through December 17:

Fund managers’ net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub gained 128.4 bcf* W/W to a net short position of -639.5 bcf*.

  • 180 bcf* of exiting spec shorts offset a 52 bcf* W/W drop in spec length to move net interest modestly higher.

  • Spec length has decreased by more than 233 bcf* in the six CFTC reports since Nov 5.

  • Spec short interest has decreased by more than 992 bcf* over the same six-week period.

Fund managers’ net length across ICE and NYMEX crude and products gained by a combined 103.98 MMb W/W to 390.9 MMb.

  • RBOB was the only crude complex member with a W/W decrease in net spec interest.

  • Spec length posted historically large weekly increases for WTI, ULSD, and gasoil.

  • Low spec open interest for WTI and Brent warrants caution as markets navigate low global inventories and uncertain demand in early 2025.

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This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.