CoT: Crude Sees Cautious Length, NG Specs Wait on Sidelines

A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning

January 27, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

CFTC/ICE Commitment of Traders data through January 21, 2025

Fund managers’ net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub fell by a moderate 87 bcf* (-9k contracts) to 448.6 bcf* (46k contracts) in the seven days ending January 21.

  • Spec short interest gained 26.6 bcf* W/W while long interest declined by 60.3 bcf*, falling for the first time in three weeks.

  • Spec open interest (long+short) remains low as participants 1) await clarity about the Trump administration’s near-term policy priorities and 2) recalibrate demand forecasts for bal winter ‘24-’25.

Fund managers’ combined net length across ICE and NYMEX crude and product benchmarks increased for the fourth consecutive week, gaining 31.3 MMb W/W to 600 MMb. Net spec length increased for four out of the five most active crude complex instruments in the CFTC’s latest report, with specs’ net interest in RBOB posting the only weekly decrease.

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This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.