CoT: Crude Longs Test The Water

A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning

November 11, 2024 • Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

CFTC and ICE Commitment of Traders data for the seven days ending Nov 5 showed fund managers’ net length in ICE/NYMEX crude and products increased by a combined 125.76 MMb W/W on both short exits and new long interest. Speculators’ net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub fell for the fifth-consecutive week as new shorts offset modest growth in long interest.

  • Net interest in NYMEX Henry Hub fell by 126.1 bcf* W/W to a net short position of -1,408.8 bcf* in the seven days ending Nov 5 — a four-and-a-half year low and the 10YR 10th percentile.

  • Speculators’ futures and options holdings posted a net increase for all five ICE and NYMEX crude and product contracts in the seven days ending Nov 5. Modest growth in long interest was amplified by short exits, leaving fund managers’ total length at historically low levels for four out of five contracts. The US presidential election and a unified Republican government bring specs’ low length into focus as the second Trump administration begins navigating Mideast geopolitics and sanctioned Iranian, Venezuelan, and Russian barrels.

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