CoT: Bulls Test The Water

A closer look at the latest speculator positioning

Mobius Intel Brief:

Crude Complex Highlights:

  • Spec positioning shifted moderately bullish week-on-week in the latest CFTC and ICE crude complex futures and options data through August 13. ICE Brent, gasoil, and NYMEX products bounced off their historic selling activity from carry unwind and risk-off effects in the first week of August. Still, fund managers’ holdings invite significant upside price risks in the event of any perceived or real supply-side disruption threats.

Natural Gas Highlights:

  • Three weeks of relatively nominal bullish shifts in fund managers’ net Henry Hub futures and options holdings were erased in the seven days ending August 13, as exiting longs sent net interest down over 92.9 bcf (96.3 MMDth) week-on-week to -592.8 bcf — the lowest since April 30 and the 10-YR 29th percentile. While near-term bearish risk factors are prevalent, upside potential remains significant for Winter ‘24-’25 and beyond.

The Latest Fund Positioning

Subscribe to Mobius Market Pro to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of Mobius Market Pro to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In

A subscription gets you:
Exclusive natural gas and crude complex market analysis from Mobius' VP of Markets and Research, Zane Curry (4x/week)
Unlimited access to Mobius' Energy Shots trend-spotting research
Unrestricted access to Mobius' data-centric Intel Briefs and analyst takeaways to turn headlines into actionable insights
Open lines of communication with Mobius Market Research to pose questions, request topic coverage, and get a sanity check on shifting market dynamics