CoT: Longs Out, Upside Risks Remain

Mobius Intel Brief: Speculators’ Recap

Crude Complex Highlights:

• Fund managers’ ICE and NYMEX crude complex net futures and options holdings fell over 113.5 million barrels (MMb) in the seven days ending July 30, notching four consecutive weeks of declining net length. As emphasized last week, historically diminished long interest in ICE Brent and gasoil (10-YR 5th percentile) remains a considerable upside price risk in the event of a material supply-side catalyst.

Natural Gas Highlights:

• Spec futures and options interest in NYMEX Henry Hub shifted moderately in the seven days ending July 30, with new long positions (108 bcf) outgaining new shorts (86.9 bcf), resulting in a 21.06 bcf increase in fund managers’ net holdings to -516.8 bcf.

Underlying Trends in Fund Positioning

Pro charts, statistics, and analyst insights below.