Copper: Mine Strikes, Warehouse Stocks, and China's Appetite

Mobius Intel Brief:

Mobus’ July 16 copper report outlined that ballooning warehouse stocks and lackluster Chinese demand indicators contradicted a mid-summer CME and LME copper rally. Since noting this downside price skew, nearby contracts erased over 9% to under $9,000/metric ton — approximately 21% below their late-May highs of over $11,200/met. ton.

After shedding most of 2024 YTD gains, copper markets are positioned between long-term bullish support from massive electrification needs and near-term bearish headwinds from global industrial sector uncertainty.

As covered below, copper’s short-term bearish price skew remains prominent, though developing upside price risks at the world’s largest copper mine warrant caution.

The Balance of Copper Risks

• Downside Highlights

• Upside Highlights

• Spec Holdings Erase Downside Momentum Risks

• LME, CME, SHFE Warehouse Stocks

• Early Signals from the Yangshan Premium

• China’s Near-Term Demand Outlook

• Escondida Strikes and Copper Market Takeaways

Pro charts, statistics, and analyst insights below.