Concentrated Hiring Freeze

Mobius Intel Brief:

As emphasized in Tuesday’s Mobius Intel Brief, U.S. labor market conditions have likely surpassed inflation data as the leading indicator of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut magnitude and frequency in 2H24.

As the Fed’s inflation-first focus shifts to the U.S. job market, stakeholders should note the dilemma posed by 4.3% unemployment, a triggered Sahm rule, reduced quit rates, and rapidly diminished job openings. A tight labor market amidst constrained consumer spending and deteriorating credit warrants caution for 1) 2H24 commodity demand and 2) follow-on effects for FX market dynamics covered here.

Pro charts, statistics, and analyst insights below.