Brief: U.S. Energy Exports & China's Retaliatory Tariffs

Which U.S. energy exports will be most impacted by China's retaliatory tariffs on imported U.S. goods?

April 10, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 5 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

China retaliated to the latest round of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs with an 84% duty on imported U.S. goods, beginning today.

While final measures could change drastically in the tit-for-tat trade dispute, at the time of this writing, the U.S. will proceed with an elevated 125% levy on imported Chinese goods, effective immediately.

Key Intel - China’s Demand for U.S. Energy Exports

  • Crude & Refined Products: China accounted for an average of 857 kb./d or 7.97% of the U.S.’ 10.76 MMb/d of crude and refined product exports in 2024, down from a 9.7% share in 2023 but above the 2018-2022 average share of 5.96%.

  • Feedstocks: Chinese imports of U.S. petchem feedstocks like ethane and propane are meaningful. China imported 228 kb/d of U.S. ethane in 2024, representing 46.3% of the U.S.’ total daily rate of 492 kb/d. This share increased from 45% in 2023 and 37% in 2022. China’s imports of U.S. propane averaged 312 kb/d in 2024 from 223 kb/d in 2023. China’s U.S. propane imports represented 17.6% of the total U.S. daily average of 1.78 MMb/d last year.

  • LNG: China imported 582.7 MMscf/d of U.S. LNG in 2024, representing approximately 4.9% of total U.S. LNG exports (11.96 Bcf/d in 2024). Last year’s purchases increased from 474 MMscf/d in 2023 and 264 MMscf/d in 2022 but remain below the 2021 peak of 1.24 Bcf/d.

  • Coal: U.S. coal accounts for ~2.5% of total Chinese imports, with China’s primary purchases originating in Australia, Indonesia, Russia, and Mongolia. U.S. steam coal exports to China increased 167.4% Y/Y in 2024 to 3.46 million short tons, representing approximately 6.83% of total U.S. steam coal exports last year. U.S. metallurgical coal exports to China increased 67.6% Y/Y in 2024 to 8.95 million short tons, representing approximately 15.8% of total U.S. met coal exports.

Looking Ahead

  • China’s imports of U.S. LNG dropped to 0 MMscf/d in January and will likely remain subdued as trade spats escalate. Alternative buyers are plentiful — Europe faces an uphill battle to replace supplies before a Nov. 1 target to refill storage to 90% from 35% today. Tariff-driven demand for U.S. energy exports will support more LNG in the broader Asia region for Taiwan, India, South Korea, Japan, and more.

  • Crude and refined product exports will likely see increased competitive pressure as OPEC returns >400 kb/d of production in May. Tariff-related headwinds for economic output are frequently cited in headlines, though stakeholders should caution adopting this sentiment as underlying demand and economic indicators remain solid.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.