Brief: TTF Nears $16.50 as EU Storage Falls to 50%

Dutch TTF hits a two-year rolling prompt-month high of $16.482/MMBtu as European gas markets test the limits of the bloc's supply-side fears

February 06, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Dutch TTF continued its two-week rally as the prompt-month Mar ‘25 contract approached $16.50 MMBtu today on cooler-than-normal temperatures, a widening Y/Y storage deficit, and knock-on effects of inflexible EU storage mandates.

Key Intel

  • The TTF Curve: While the prompt-month TTF contract notched another two-year high today, the summer ‘25 strip and the October ‘25 contract have outperformed month-on-month. The Oct ‘25 is up by a 2025-leading $2.20 M/M, and curve flattening above $16 reflects a) the European gas market’s summer injection concerns as the EU’s Y/Y storage deficit expands to 685 Bcf and b) the knock-on effects of gas regulators’ storage mandates that erode facility operators’ price sensitivity. As noted in yesterday’s DMU, these mandates have received fresh scrutiny and may be rolled back or paused ahead of winter ‘25-’26.

  • Storage Levels Near 50%: The latest model runs show nine days of colder-than-normal temperatures in Europe’s 15-day forecast, adding demand-side tailwinds to the EU’s storage data. Aggregate inventories fell to the 50% mark by EOD yesterday. Season-to-date withdrawals from aggregate EU inventories now total -1.71 tcf—the third-largest absolute change for an Oct 1-Feb 5 period in data since 2011.

  • Small Norwegian Outages: Maintenance on several Gassco exit terminals and processing facilities have reduced pipeline gas flows to 11.24 Bcf/d this week. While above the levels seen during unplanned outages in Feb 2024, flows are approximately -0.8 Bcf/d from the same period from 2022 and -0.4 Bcf/d from 2023.

Looking Ahead

  • Cooler temperatures are supportive in the near-term. However, downside risks are apparent as regulators consider potential changes to European storage mandates with spec long interest at multi-year-highs.

  • Germany’s Feb 23 chancellorship election will invite knock-on effects for TTF as Europe evaluates changes to energy policy in the bloc’s largest economy. An opposition victory could add bullish tailwinds for EU gas demand as restrictions on new gas-fired generation are rolled back.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.