Brief: TTF Bulls Exit Despite Supply Risks

Investment funds' outlook on Dutch TTF turned significantly less bullish in the last two months as money managers net length in TTF fell more than 72% from Feb 7 through Apr 25.

May 01, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Investment funds' outlook on Dutch TTF turned significantly less bullish in the last two months in response to easing storage mandates and strong renewables.

Key Intel

  • Speculative net length in Dutch TTF fell over 72% between Feb 7 and the latest ICE positioning data through April 25, fueled by a 32% decrease in futures/options length and a 23% increase in short interest.

  • Money managers’ net interest (70.97 MM contracts) sank to its lowest since April of last year (61.5 MM on Apr 12). Long interest (298 MM contracts) hit its lowest in 15 months.

  • Regulatory efforts to ease inflexible EU storage mandates progressed through March and April, though most countries still face the European Commission’s 2025 mandate for facilities to be 90% full by November 1. Germany eased some mandates for cavern and porous storage facilities earlier this week, cutting mandated Nov 1 levels to approximately 75%.

  • Abnormally high withdrawals from aggregate EU gas storage during winter ‘24-’25 (warmer than normal) invite questions about the EU’s slow start to summer injection season. Aggregate EU storage levels (1.51 tcf) through the end of April remain below 40% of capacity. The Y/Y deficit in EU storage hit a peak of over 1.0 tcf in mid-Apr and held at -890 Bcf this week.

  • While strong wind and solar output will provide a near-term buffer for the EU, supply-side disruptions and inflexible regulatory mandates will remain material upside risk factors for a continent that now secures the majority of its gas from two exporters (Norway, U.S.).

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.