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- Brief: The EU's Lowest Gas Storage Levels
Brief: The EU's Lowest Gas Storage Levels
Europe prepares for summer injection season after the first winter without Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine and Slovakia sent aggregate gas storage in the bloc to its fourth-lowest level in nearly 15 years.
Mobius Intel Brief:
EU member states are on track to end winter ‘24-’25 with aggregate underground natural gas storage levels at 1.32 tcf or less than 34% of capacity following the fourth-largest cumulative winter withdrawal since 2011.
Key Intel:
The Jan 1 expiration of the Gazprom-Ukraine gas transit agreement and February’s multi-week collapse in European renewable generation offset warmer-than-normal temperatures, depleting aggregate EU inventories by more than 2.73 tcf between October 1 and the latest data through March 25. Europe’s season-to-date withdrawal will likely settle as the fourth-largest since at least 2011.
Gas storage levels have depleted near historic lows for several of the bloc’s largest economies. As shown in the EU storage map below, gas storage levels in France, Germany, and the Netherlands are well below the total EU’s 33.9%. With winter ‘24-’25 coming to a close, EU member states with historically low gas in storage now face a new dilemma—refilling facilities over 90% by the European Commission’s mandated November 1 deadline.
The bloc’s mandates and this year’s significant storage withdrawals on warmer-than-normal temperatures welcomed new speculative length in Dutch TTF after fund managers unwound long interest in Dutch TTF by over 150 million contracts in the four weeks ending Mar 7. In the two weeks ending Mar 21, investment funds’ net length in TTF gained over 28.2 million contracts from +39 million contracts of new long interest versus 10.9 million contracts of new shorts.
