Brief: Solar Generation Growth Leads U.S. Fuel Mix in 2025

Mobius Intel Brief:

Power generation from the U.S. solar fleet has grown substantially faster than other generation resources so far in 2025, with cumulative solar output up 41.5% to 65.2 billion kWh from Jan 1 through Apr 20, 2025.

Key Intel

• Solar output has grown by an average annualized rate of 42.3% over the first four months of 2025 versus +7.2% for lower 48 wind generation, -3.0% for lower 48 natural gas-fired generation, and +24.4% for lower 48 coal-fired generation.

• Cumulative YTD U.S. wind generation is up 7.5% Y/Y to 161.9 billion kWh through the first three and a half months of 2025. Wind showed a strong start to the year with January’s cumulative generation up 22.6% Y/Y to 42.6 billion kWh. Aggregate wind output has since subsided to post annualized changes of 0.1%, 9.6%, and -3.4% in February, March, and April-to-date.

• Strong growth in solar electricity production alongside moderate growth in wind generation has pressured U.S. demand for natural gas-fired generation. While gas-fired units will likely see substantial demand growth when balancing areas exit renewables’ best-performing shoulder season months, YTD gas-fired electricity generation is down -2.6% Y/Y to 446.1 billion kWh through April 20th.

• Significant coal capacity retirements have not had an effect on YTD coal-fired generation, as lower 48 coal-fueled units have collectively produced 22.1% more electricity during the first three-and-a-half months of 2025 at 226.3 billion kWh.

Looking Ahead

• Coal capacity retirements will likely become more apparent during peak demand months of July and August this year. These retirements, alongside likely deterioration in the U.S. wind fleet’s performance beginning in May, will improve the odds for substantial demand growth for lower 48 natural gas-fired power.

• Solar’s material improvements are a lagging effect of Inflation Reduction Act incentives. While the Trump administration has not indicated that cuts to solar-related incentives are probable, recent measures against offshore wind projects should be considered on mid-term horizons.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.